AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt leaves migrants fearing what comes next

The far-right party’s historic election result has intensified concerns among people with migration backgrounds about security, belonging and the future of integration work, prompting migrant organisations, Jewish leaders and civil society groups nationwide to demand protection guarantees and a firm line from Germany’s democratic parties

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the clear winner of Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt state election, taking 43.8 per cent of the vote — narrowly missing an outright majority but posting the highest share any party has won in the state since reunification. The result marks only the second time, after Thuringia in 2024, that the AfD has finished first in a German state election. The state’s domestic intelligence agency classifies the local AfD branch as a confirmed right-wing extremist organisation.

The Christian Democrats (CDU) of outgoing premier Sven Schulze collapsed to a historic low of 17.2 per cent, with the SPD, Greens and Left party all trailing in single digits and the pro-business FDP shut out of parliament entirely. Turnout hit a record 77.8 per cent. Government formation remains unresolved, with AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund now the frontrunner to become state premier.

For people with a migration background, the result has landed as more than a political shift. “We don’t yet know which government will emerge, but we already know the fear this result has triggered,” said Saaeid Saaeid of the Saxony-Anhalt Refugee Council, whose organisation has vowed to keep organising protection for those affected.

The Turkish Community in Germany warned that residents were “asking themselves this morning whether they are still safe on the street,” while its co-chair called any serious consideration by residents of leaving their homes after a democratic election “a massive problem for the rule of law.” Civil society groups working directly with migrants, including the association Miteinander, say the AfD has openly targeted them for defunding.

National migrant umbrella bodies — the Federal Conference of Migrant Organisations and the eastern German network DaMOst — are calling the vote “a stress test for democracy” and urging all democratic parties to rule out any coalition, toleration deal, or AfD-backed majority. Jewish leaders, disability rights advocates and press-freedom groups have voiced similar alarm, citing AfD proposals affecting inclusive education, historical memorial funding and public broadcasting. Campaign groups including Campact have announced nationwide demonstrations in response.

The national implications are equally important. The result strengthens the AfD’s claim that it can win power and puts Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU-led government under greater pressure over migration, the economy and its strategy towards the far right.

The election has therefore intensified pressure on Germany’s established parties to decide how they will respond to a party that has become increasingly powerful electorally while remaining outside the political mainstream. The CDU and other established parties have so far rejected cooperation with the AfD, but the party’s 39 seats mean that forming a stable government without it will be difficult. Current negotiations have already raised the possibility of cooperation with the small BSW party, although no governing arrangement has been secured.

For Germany’s migrant communities, however, the immediate question is more personal: will political change alter not only government policy, but their sense of security and belonging in the country they call home?

Sola Jolaoso

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