**Edited caption:** *Germany stands at a demographic crossroads as population decline and reduced migration pose growing challenges to its future/Photo: AI-generated illustration by ChatGPT using AfricanCourierMedia images.*

Germany’s population shrinks as migration no longer offsets demographic decline

Germany’s population fell in 2025 for the first time in several years, underlining the country’s deepening demographic challenges and the growing importance of migration policy for its economic and social future.

According to provisional figures released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), around 83.5 million people were living in Germany at the end of 2025—about 100,000 fewer than a year earlier.

Population declines are not new to Germany. Similar drops were recorded between 2003 and 2010 and again in 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. What makes 2025 stand out is that net migration was no longer sufficient to compensate for the country’s large natural population loss—a situation not seen since 2020.

As in every year since German reunification in 1990, deaths once again significantly outnumbered births. The number of births continued to fall in 2025, with an estimated 640,000 to 660,000 babies born, down from about 677,000 in 2024. At the same time, deaths remained high at just over one million. This resulted in a birth deficit of 340,000 to 360,000 people, marking the fourth consecutive year in which the gap exceeded 300,000. By comparison, during the 2010s the annual deficit averaged around 170,000.

Until recently, Germany had relied on immigration to offset this demographic imbalance. But that safety valve weakened sharply in 2025. Net migration—immigration minus emigration—is estimated at 220,000 to 260,000 people, at least 40% lower than in 2024, when more than 430,000 people were added through migration. The last time migration levels were similarly low was in 2020, during the pandemic.

Destatis stresses that the 2025 figures are still preliminary, based on data available up to October, with final results expected in mid-2026. Even so, the message is clear: without renewed and well-managed migration, Germany’s population decline is likely to accelerate in the coming years—with far-reaching implications for society, the economy and Europe’s largest labour market.

Sola Jolaoso

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