A new study reveals that increased immigration could significantly ease the burden on Germany’s social welfare system, offering a long-term boost to public finances. According to research commissioned by the Mediendienst Integration, Germany’s public coffers could benefit from savings of approximately €100 billion each year if net migration increases steadily.
The study, conducted by economist Martin Werding, a member of Germany’s Council of Economic Experts, highlights how immigration not only raises public spending but also substantially increases tax revenue. This is especially crucial as Germany grapples with the economic pressures of an aging population.
A Remedy for Fiscal Imbalance
Werding, who is also a professor of social policy and public finance at Ruhr University Bochum, argues that an annual net migration increase of 200,000 people could reduce Germany’s structural budget gap by around 2.5 percent of its gross domestic product. In 2024 terms, this translates into savings of around €104 billion per year.
“Each additional migrant arriving as part of a sustained immigration trend reduces the fiscal burden on the state by about €7,100 annually,” the report states.
This new analysis contrasts with many earlier studies that painted a more negative picture of immigration’s fiscal effects. In an era where Germany’s public finances are under increasing strain, continuous immigration could offer a pathway to long-term sustainability, the study suggests.
Economic Gains Beyond the Budget
In addition to the direct fiscal benefits, immigration also contributes to broader economic growth. Werding points out that a growing population through immigration boosts the gross domestic product (GDP), which in turn leads to higher tax revenues.
Moreover, international students, many of whom remain in Germany after completing their studies, are also seen as a valuable asset to the economy, bringing not just knowledge and skills but also contributing to the future workforce and tax base.
A Strategic Opportunity for Germany
As demographic trends point to a shrinking and aging German population, the findings of this study underscore the potential of well-managed immigration to counterbalance these developments. The data suggests that migrants, when integrated into the labour market, can play a crucial role in strengthening the sustainability of public finances.
For African migrants and policymakers alike, this report is a timely reminder that migration, if supported with effective policies and integration strategies, can be a win-win—benefiting both host countries and the migrants themselves.
Sola Jolaoso