Asylum-seekers in Germany are facing significantly lower chances of having their applications approved, according to official government data from the first half of 2025.
The recognition rate for protection claims has plummeted to 26.5%, a sharp decline compared to previous years, when recognition rates ranged between 59 and 72 percent. The fall is especially striking for applicants from conflict-torn countries: protection for Afghans fell from 93 percent in 2024 to just over 60 percent, while Iranians saw approvals drop from 36.7 to 25.8 percent.
Syrian applications have been largely suspended since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, leaving many in limbo. Instead of the usual six-month processing time, decisions for Syrians are currently delayed up to 21 months.
With fewer approvals, more asylum-seekers are turning to the courts. Nearly 90,900 new asylum law suits were filed in the first half of 2025 alone — already more than during the whole of 2023. The administrative courts are under severe pressure but have processed cases faster than in past years, issuing over 52,000 rulings in six months.
For many applicants, pursuing this legal route is proving worthwhile. The data reveals that almost 9,000 people who were initially rejected by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) were later granted protection in the first half of 2025 following a court ruling or a renewed review by the authorities. In over 3,000 of these cases, judges ruled directly against BAMF’s initial assessment.
Politicians have offered contrasting interpretations of the trends. While Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) praised the lower number of asylum applications — down 60 percent in August compared to last year — as proof of effective migration policies, opposition voices strongly disagree.
Clara Bünger, the Left Party’s spokesperson on refugee policy, expressed deep concern. She suggested that political pressure and measures to accelerate asylum procedures may be leading to “qualitatively insufficient assessments” by the BAMF, failing to properly identify those in genuine need of protection. “It would be naive to believe that there is no connection between the political climate and the decision-making practice of the asylum authority,” Bünger stated.
For asylum-seekers in Germany, the message is clear: challenging a rejection in court could be a vital path to protection as initial administrative decisions become markedly less favourable.
Felix Dappah