The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) has reported a significant 23 percent reduction in asylum applications across the EU+ region (EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland), with 399,000 new claims registered between January and June 2025, 114,000 fewer than during the same period in 2024.
A striking downturn in applications from Syrian nationals played a central role. Syrian asylum requests plunged by 66 percent to some 25,000 in the first half of 2025, down from nearly 75,000 in early 2024. Month-by-month, Syrian claims dropped sharply, from around 16,000 in October 2024 to a mere 3,100 in May 2025, a near fivefold decline within seven months.
The EUAA attributes this shift not to European asylum policy, but to political changes in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Renewed hopes for stability and reconstruction under interim authorities seem to have encouraged returns. Indeed, the UN refugee agency estimates that over 500,000 Syrians had returned home by mid-May 2025, with expectations of up to 1.5 million by year’s end.
Meanwhile, the dominant nationalities of those seeking protection has shifted: Venezuelans emerged as the largest group seeking asylum in the EU+ in early 2025, lodging some 49,000 claims, a 31 percent increase year-on-year. They were followed by Afghans, who filed around 42,000 applications.
Destination patterns also shifted. Germany — historically the top EU asylum destination — saw its share fall by 43 percent to around 70,000 applications. France and Spain overtook Germany, receiving approximately 78,000 and 77,000 new claims, respectively. Italy recorded some 64,000 applications, down by 25 percent compared with 2024. France maintained stable asylum numbers, while Spain and Italy experienced 13 percent and 25 percent declines, respectively.
Adding to concern, the EU+ recognition rate of asylum claims has plunged to a record-low 25 percent in the first half of 2025, reflecting procedural suspension of decisions for Syrians and recorded withdrawals, rather than stricter criteria. Cases still awaiting first-instance decisions stood at 918,000 at the end of June.
Adira Kallo