The report shows with figures that only with immigration could the nation's population grow/Photo: AfricanCourierMedia

German population will shrink without immigration – report

Only with permanent immigration of around 400,000 people per year, could the population in Germany grow to 90 million inhabitants by 2070, according to a new report by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Germany currently has 84 million inhabitants.

The report is the result of the 15th coordinated population projection by Destatis, which was presented in Berlin recently. The statisticians have calculated three scenarios for the growth of the population over the next five decades.

At an average annual net immigration of 290,000 people, the population would grow to 85 million people by 2031 and then decline to 83 million by 2070, said Karsten Lummer, head of the Population Division at the Federal Statistical Office. With a low net immigration of 180,000 people per year, the population would drop to 75 million people in 2070.

The calculations are based on factors such as birth rate (currently at 1.58 children per woman), life expectancy (78.5 years for men, 83 years for women) and net external migration.

The report shows with figures that only with immigration could the nation’s population grow. Without immigration, the German population would have been shrinking for a long time. Since 1972, more people die in Germany than are born. In 2021, the birth deficit was 230,000 – which means the difference between new births and deaths.

Germany is currently experiencing a noticeable ageing of the labour force potential. Currently, 51.4 million people belong to the age group of 20 to 66 years. This corresponds to 62 per cent of the population, a reason why there is acute shortage of manpower in many sectors of the economy. Yet only a few companies recruit employees from abroad due to language barriers and legal and bureaucratic hurdles, according to a recent report. The governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP is currently working on the modernisation of the country’s immigration laws.

Sola Jolaoso

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