As the 31 October deadline for reaching a deal between the EU and UK approaches, analysts and stakeholders are now calculating the likely costs of a no-deal arbitrary exit of the UK from the bloc. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a British think tank, a no-deal Brexit would push the UK to its highest debt-level since the 1960s, EUObserver has reported. The think tank was quoted as telling the BBC “the government is now adrift without any effective fiscal anchor” and that it would be forced to borrow up to $100bn (€112bn). This would create a debt level of 90 percent if the UK’s national income.
Meanwhile, German businesses have incurred losses worth €3.5bn in bilateral trade between Germany and the UK because of negative effects of Brexit in the first half of this year alone, according to the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA). The president of the BGA warned that the real cost will be much higher and that a no-deal Brexit would have “catastrophic consequences” for German exporters.
Anti-Brexit campaigners on Monday lost a court case in Scotland aimed at preventing the UK government crashing out of the EU with no deal. Activists had wanted the Scottish court to rule that Boris Johnson must commit to asking Brussels for an extension of the 31 October Brexit deadline, if no deal is found this month. Judges in Edinburgh accepted the government’s assurances they would ask for an extension.
Crucial two-day summit of EU leaders begins in Brussels on Thursday 17 October. This is the last such meeting currently scheduled before the Brexit deadline.